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Paul Hair is a national security expert and an author. He writes under his own name and as a ghostwriter. Connect with him at http://www.liberateliberty.com/. Contact him at paul@liberateliberty.com.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Here’s the Data Supporting Trump’s Claim of Illegal Voting

UPDATE (Jan. 25, 2017): The original version of this post said that, “So perhaps 6.4 percent of the 2008 votes were illegal. How many people voted in the 2008 election? 131 million people according to CBS News. And 6.4 percent of 131 million people is 8.38 million people.” This is an incorrect conclusion. The 6.4 percent the authors cite in The Washington Post article refers to the number of non-citizens who may have voted. So the high number of non-citizen votes according to the authors of the article would be around 2.8 million, not 8.38 million. The post has been corrected.

Media and pundits are attacking Donald Trump’s claim that between 2 and 3.5 million people may have illegally voted. They are saying he has no evidence on which to base this claim. This is false. In fact, Trump’s estimate may be low.


SCI cited a 2014 Washington Post article in the analysis, “Mexican Influence Operations for Hillary Part of Larger Hostilities against U.S.” That article estimated how many illegal aliens may vote based on the best data available. People challenged that article; the authors of the article rebutted those challenges.

So people can argue over the conclusions and the reliability of the data but the data do exist. Here is what the authors of the article say about potential illegal voting.

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.

So perhaps 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008. That is approximately 2.8 million people.

People can argue whether the data are correct. But the argument that Trump is purely making up numbers about illegal voting is an incorrect claim.

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