Long-range forecasting is a staple of the intelligence community and think tanks.
The National Intelligence Council published, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” in December 2012 and the Atlantic Council is periodically publishing its own assessments on 2030 based on the NIC report (see, for instance, “Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution”). And even the work I help do at Wikistrat consists of long-term forecasting at times.
Forecasts such as those mentioned above identify traditional threats (terrorism, WMD proliferation, etc.) and artificially created threats (global warming, water shortages, etc.) as being drivers of global conflict and changes.
The SCI forecast will address threats that no IC organization and most think tanks won’t: cultural threats.
This doesn’t mean that SCI doesn’t believe that traditional threats or artificially created threats will drive global conflict and change; only that this SCI assessment is looking at how cultural threats will drive global conflict and change. In some cases, SCI agrees that artificially created threats will drive global conflict and change but assesses reasons and outcomes that are different from IC organizations and other think tanks would.
The “SCI: The Five Threats that Will Drive Global Conflict and Rule the Future” long-range forecast falls directly in line with the SCI mission of analyzing and assessing how security and culture intersect, and how culture is critical to security.
The five cultural threats SCI identifies are as follows:
(1) Sodomy and Abortion: A global movement has long been underway to make these “human rights.” Conflicts and even wars will arise as Western Civilization (led by the U.S.) attempts to impose the acceptance of sodomy and abortion as preeminent rights on the rest of the world. Those who refuse to accept these threats as “universal human rights” will be vilified as enemies of the human race. Sodomy and abortion already are the two most important agenda items for those in power in the West. (Author’s Note: I’ve previously touched on the significance of one-half of these twin threats in, “The Consequences of Making Morality a “Crime against Humanity”.” )
(2) Anti-human Advocacy: Part of the agenda of environmentalists and those who believe in manmade climate change is to make humans no better than animals and plants, and in some cases less than them. There is a significant and well-funded effort that allows this threat to exist. And when combined with the threat of abortion, it makes it even more serious.
(3) Anti-Christianity: Western Civilization has moved form a post-Christian world to one that is outright hostile to it and attempting to destroy it. Destroying it can mean either eliminating it entirely or infiltrating it and subverting it from within so that it eventually will hold to none of the beliefs that make it Christianity.
(4) Communism: The Cold War never ended—or if it did, the U.S. and the West lost. China is on the rise. Brazil and South America are Marxist nations. New York City just voted an all but card-carrying member of the Communist Party. And even the ideological right in the U.S. hates the NSA (a long-time foe of communists), supports Edward Snowden (who uses Russia as a safe haven), and supports Glenn Greenwald (an outright Marxist who has long despised the U.S.). Some will argue that communism is a way of governing and Marxism is an ideology. SCI will not differentiate between the two. For instance, China is still considered communist but it has made changes to its government and even allows businesses to operate in the free market system. Does this mean that China is no longer communist even as it holds Marxist beliefs? No. And this is one of the reasons SCI makes no distinction between communism and Marxism.
(5) Transhumanism: The globe is moving towards transhumanism. Transhumanism is both a threat and an end game. The definition of transhumanism probably is subject to who defines it. However, SCI will loosely define transhumanism as the belief that the individual has the right to define every aspect of himself in any way he wants. And with technology seemingly advancing at an ever-fast pace, the ability to define oneself in whatever way he imagines might be possible a lot sooner than most people think. Some might think this would be a good thing. But it won’t be.
Some of the five threats will have sub-categories and all will definitely overlap.
Obviously not everyone will agree that these are threats or even bad things. But that does not render this forecasting useless for those who disagree. Rather, even if one thinks that those things that SCI identifies as threats are good things, he still should be able to agree with the assessment that these things will drive global conflict and come to rule the future.
For instance, there is a major and global push to say that religious beliefs should be subservient to so-called same-sex rights and so-called reproductive rights. I believe this will eventually become accepted by the world although I do not think it should be.
In other words, one of the primary purposes of this SCI forecasting project is to identify accurately what will happen regardless of whether one thinks it is a good thing or bad thing.
This long-range forecast will be an ongoing evaluation and forecast at SCI, with stories and individual analyses addressing it on a continuing basis.
Below are just a handful of stories for each of the five identified threats that will drive global conflict and come to rule the future.
Sodomy & Abortion:
“The coming clash of civilizations over gay rights,” Reuters, August 12, 2013
“Cultural Marxism and the (Very Real) Movement to Normalize Pedophilia,” The Other McCain, October 15, 2013
“Illinois Dems Pass Gay Marriage, Can’t Find Time for Pension Reform,” Breitbart, November 05, 2013
“Pick One: Marriage Culture Or Government Culture,” The Federalist, November 06, 2013
“Obama Honors Gay Socialist and Lesbian Astronaut,” CNSNews.com, November 21, 2013
“Gay Rights as Foreign Policy,” National Interest, December 09, 2013
“The World In Crisis,” The Federalist, December 24, 2013 – “The culture wars haven’t ended – they’ve escalated, and they will continue to escalate in a society where people have fewer commonly held views, and less respect for those who disagree with them for any reason, least of all a religious one. The lack of a shared language of compromise and respect leads to ongoing and increasingly contentious clashes of faith, politics, and sexual rights, where lightning rods of courts and culture lead to flashpoints that strain social bonds, break friendships, and end the ability to have a healthy community where disagreement over law and politics does not lead to death threats on social media.”
“From The U.S. To Russia, 2013 Was The Year LGBT Rights Went Global,” RFE/RL, December 31, 2013
“David Attenborough – Humans are plague on Earth – Humans are a plague on the Earth that need to be controlled by limiting population growth, according to Sir David Attenborough.” The Telegraph, January 22, 2013
“Theology, Other Professors Lobby for Abortion Coverage at Loyola Marymount Univ.” Cardinal Newman Society, October 01, 2013 – “About 80 faculty and staff members at Loyola Marymount University (LMU), including many in the theology department, affixed their name to a full page advertisement in the student newspaper, the Los Angeles Loyolan, urging the administration of the Jesuit University to continue providing coverage for abortion in its healthcare plan. . . .
Thomas White, professor of business ethics, affirms by signing the ad that he condones abortion rights for humans, yet he has argued that dolphins should be granted the status of personhood. White is the author of In Defense of Dolphins: The New Frontier.
“Dolphins should be considered nonhuman persons,” said White, according to an LMU press release, “because they have the kind of consciousness that, in the past, we thought was unique to our species. They’re not just aware of the world around them, but they have the ability to look inside and say ‘I.’ They have a sense of choice and will.’”
Because of those attributes, White believes that dolphins should be given “moral standing” as individuals, according to LMU.”
“New York lawsuit seeks ‘legal personhood’ for chimpanzees,” Reuters, December 03, 2013
“My Discussion With Pro-Infanticide “Philosopher” Peter Singer,” Life News, December 10, 2013 – “I began by restating his criteria for personhood from the previous evening’s talk and asked him if he was intentional in excluding certain classes of human life. He said he was. He reemphasized that mankind is not exceptional. I stated that the ultimate goal of Personhood USA was the legal recognition of human personhood and asked, “Was not the legal recognition of non-human personhood ultimately the goal of his movement”? He agreed that it was. I stated that “Ideas have consequences”, and he replied, “They certainly do.” I continued, “Would you agree that your definition of personhood diminishes and devalues human life and dignity and could have profound implications on healthcare policy? That it might lead to rationing and denial of service for those classes he has identified as non-persons under Obama Care?” His response was that it is already occurring and that reform is needed all across the healthcare system. That his definition of personhood would provide a consistent universal ethic for all of earth’s animals.”
“Liberty for All or License for Some: How the Left Views Religious Freedom,” Juicy Ecumenism, December 21, 2013 – “The threat to religious liberty expressed by Steenland and others at CAP, however, is all too concrete and widespread, given, for example, her lengthy list of businesses servicing weddings. Under CAP’s constitution explicated by Gaddy, corporal practices like abortion, contraception, and homosexuality are all apparently beneficent inalienable human rights, however recent (or temporary) their societal acceptance. Those supposedly few recalcitrant religious believers who support various traditionally-respected principles with appeals, among others, to an absolute authority must “negotiate” away freedom of conscience. Liberty defined by CAP accepts only all-encompassing active acquiescence in, and not abstinence from, other individuals’ actions lest anyone accommodate a moral objection. The conscientious individual following God may not dissent from the state collective will as approved by CAP. Christians and other believers must act and pray so that CAP’s views do not prevail.”
“For human rights to flourish, religious rights have to come second – In Britain, discriminatory attitudes – to racism, to women, to homosexuality – have changed quickly and profoundly. But are religious beliefs now hampering progress?” The Guardian, December 27, 2013
“Deutsche Bank: Communism is alive in America,” The Daily Caller, February 15, 2013
“CPUSA leader talks strategy for defeating the extreme right,” People’s World, April 30, 2013
“How Soviet Intelligence Promoted Christian Marxism,” Juicy Ecumenism, October 08, 2013
“A How-To Guide to Blowing Up the Constitution – With America paralyzed by government gridlock, maybe it’s time to admit that our political system doesn’t work anymore. What if we start over?” National Journal, October 31, 2013
“De Blasio visited Communist USSR in college,” New York Post, November 03, 2013
“Social workers take children from families who overfeed them – OBESE children have been taken from their families by social workers because of fears that overfeeding was wrecking their health.” The Express, December 29, 2013
“Transhumanism: Amputating a Healthy Limb – Body Integrity Identity Disorder; BIID,” National Review, April 27, 2013
“Scary Brave New World: Here Come Woman Fathers and Male Mothers,” Life News, August 23, 2013
“I’m an Atheist, Therefore I’m a Transhumanist,” The Huffington Post, December 05, 2013
“Lewis and the Technocracy – His best novel foresaw the mess we’re in.” American Spectator, December 06, 2013 – “The goals of the N.I.C.E., gradually unveiled by Lewis, are to free man from nature—to throw off his chains—and put science in charge of his destiny. This means not total equality, as Rousseau promised, but slavery: “Man has got to take charge of Man,” one of the N.I.C.E.’s elites says. “That means, remember, that some men have got to take charge of the rest.” And not just Man, but every aspect of his life and economy. “Aren’t we going to solve the whole currency question? It’s we that make money,” says another technocrat, sounding like a future Fed chairman. . . .”